Time:2023/03/24 (Fri.), 13:30 – 15:00 (Beijing Time)

Title:   Consumption Dynamics under Diagnostic Expectations

Venue:  Zhonghui Building 106

About the speaker:

尹鹏辉，山东大学助理教授，2020年获法兰克福大学经济学博士学位。主要研究宏观经济学、信息经济学和行为经济学。曾在Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 期刊发表论文。

Abstract:

Household survey data show that positive income shocks lead to a positive consumption change today but a negative change in consumption tomorrow. These results contradict standard consumption models that predict current consumption change only depends on unpredictable income shocks. To explain this puzzling consumption pattern, we study a behavioral life-cycle-permanent-income consumption model under diagnostic expectation. Together with incomplete information, our model can have a potential to generate realistic consumption dynamics and have important implications for governments' stimulus fiscal policies.