Seminar Vol. 178

Title: Starving and Deceiving: Famine Experience, Politician Risk Preference, and GDP Manipulation in China

Speaker: Shuo Chen, Fudan University

Time: September 23th, 2019  13:30-15:00

Venue: Conference Room 106B, IESR, Zhonghui Building (College of Economics)

About the speaker:

Shuo Chen is currently a Professor in the Department of Economics, Fudan University. He received Ph.D. in Social Science from the Division of Social Science at the Hong Kong University of Science & Technology in 2011. Shuo Chen's main research interests are in the development economics and economic history of China. He has published in such international journals as American Political Science Review, Journal of Economic Growth, and American Economic Journal: Applied Ecnomocs. 

Abstract:

Recent studies have found that the childhood experience of natural disasters shape people’s behaviors by changing their risk preferences. Yet less studies explore whether natural disasters would change politicians’ behaviors. Based on a novel dataset covering information on 5,389 county party secretaries in China, this article empirically explore whether the childhood experience of famine affects officials’ GDP manipulation behavior. We find that officials who experienced famine in childhood are less likely to cheat on GDP data. The results are robust after controlling for a range of socio-economic indicators, the level of promotion incentives for officials, and other shocks. Further empirical evidence reveals that famine experiences make officials risk averse through the above mechanisms.