Climate Variability and Migration in the Philippines

Climate Variability and Migration in the Philippines

Population and Environment

Pratikshya Bohra-Mishra, Michael Oppenheimer, Ruohong Cai, Shuaizhang Feng, Rachel Licker

Abstract

This study investigates the effects of climatic variations and extremes captured by variability in temperature, precipitation, and incidents of typhoons on aggregate inter-provincial migration within the Philippines using panel data. Our results indicate that a rise in temperature and to some extent increased typhoon activity increase outmigration, while precipitation does not have a consistent, significant effect. We also find that temperature and typhoons have significant negative effects on rice yields, a proxy for agricultural productivity, and generate more outmigration from provinces that are more agriculturally dependent and have a larger share of rural population. Finally, migration decisions of males, younger individuals, and those with higher levels of education are more sensitive to rising temperature and typhoons. We conclude that temperature increase and to some extent typhoon activities promote migration, potentially through their negative effect on crop yields. The migration responses of males, more educated, and younger individuals are more sensitive to these climatic impacts.

Keywords: Climate change; Migration; Environmental migrants; Temperature; Typhoons; Agricultural productivity