Title: The Long-term Impact of Tangshan Earthquake on the Local Economy Growth

Speaker: Associate Professor Guochang Zhao, SWUFE 

Time: May 12, 2017 13:30–15:00

Venue: Conference Room 106B, Zhonghui Building (College of Economics, JNU)

Abstract:

Using the 1952-2000 provincial panel data of China and a counterfactual approach developed by Hsiao et al. (2012), we evaluate the long-term impact of Tangshan earthquake on the local economy growth. We find that Tangshan earthquake and the re-construction has a long-term, persistent and positive effect on the local economy growth. We also find that the amount of investment in Tangshan (and Hebei) after earthquake cannot totally explain the local economy growth. Finally, Tangshan (and Hebei) after earthquake only significantly affects the industrial sector, while has little or trivial effects on the primary and tertiary sectors –this is consistent with the historical documents. This study, on the one hand, reflects the creative destruction mechanism, on the other hand, also indicates the chance of the higher economy growth path.