题目：Understanding Expectations in Job Search: Subjective Duration Dependence, Aggregate Labor Market Shocks and Overreaction

主讲人：何其蔚，爱丁堡大学

时间：2025年4月30日（星期三）上午10:30-12:00

地点：暨南大学（石牌校区）中惠楼106会议室

主讲人简介：

Qiwei He is an assistant professor at the University of Edinburgh. He obtained a Ph.D. in economics from Cornell University in May 2024. Qiwei's research interests span labor economics, political economy, and public economics.

Abstract：

Unemployed job seekers might worry about their chances of finding a job, especially when they remain unemployed for longer or labor market conditions turn out different than expected. Based on multiple survey samples, we find that job seekers anticipate a significant decline in their job-finding probability with an additional month of unemployment. However, they adjust their job-finding probabilities upward (downward) when the aggregate unemployment rate is unexpectedly low (high). Evaluated with a quantitative job search model, subjective job-finding probabilities substantially overreact to aggregate labor market conditions. These beliefs have the potential to offset a substantial part of the negative consequences of moral hazard in job search.