题目：The Dynamics of Agricultural Productivity Gaps: An Open-Economy Perspective

主讲人：马啸，北京大学

时间：2025年3月10日（星期一）下午13:30-15:00

地点：暨南大学（石牌校区）中惠楼106会议室

主讲人简介:

Xiao Ma received his Ph.D. in Economics from the University of California, San Diego in 2021. He is currently an assistant professor at Peking University HSBC Business School. His work mainly focuses on international trade, macroeconomics, and economic development. He has published in journals such as Economic Research Journal (Chinese), International Economic Review, Journal of International Economics, Journal of Political Economy Macroeconomics, and Review of Economics and Statistics. He received the WTO Essay Award for Young Economists in 2023.

Abstract:

This paper draws on cross-country census data to study how agricultural productivity gaps have evolved over the last four decades. We find little tendency for gaps to decline on average despite global decreases in agricultural employment shares. We analyze the dynamics of agricultural productivity gaps through the lens of an open-economy model of structural change. We calibrate the model using international trade data, which are measured independently from sectoral value added and employment data. Quantitatively, the model predicts that relatively faster physical productivity growth in the non-agricultural sector has, in many countries, offset the movement of labor out of agriculture, leading to persistently lower value added per worker in agriculture. Consistent with the model's predictions, previous exports by sector are strong predictors of agricultural productivity gaps in the current cross-section of countries.