我院助理教授崔潇濛的独立作者论文“Beyond Yield Response: Weather Shocks and Crop Abandonment”被资源与环境经济学顶级期刊Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists接受发表。
Recent panel estimates of weather effects on crop yields have been central for discussing future food security under climate change, but these estimates only carry limited behavioral response. Growers can adjust harvest decisions when experiencing weather shocks. Using U.S. county-level data on corn and soybeans, I show that harvested ratios, measured by harvested over planted acres, respond to temperature nonlinearly, and they are substantially decreased when temperature exceeds 35°C. Corn harvested ratios are more positively affected by moderate heat and less negatively affected by extreme heat, reflecting growers’ behavioral response incentivized by the higher revenue of corn. Under a 1.5°C warming, neglecting harvested ratio responses can over-estimate production loss by more than 10% for corn, but under-estimates that by more than 15% for soybeans. Evidence of response heterogeneity suggests that market condition and crop insurance further complicate the induced harvest adjustments, and adaptation exists through within-season crop substitution and irrigation.
崔潇濛，现任暨南大学经济与社会研究院助理教授，于2018年获得加州大学戴维斯分校博士学位。研究领域为环境经济学、农业经济学、资源经济学，独立作者论文发表于Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists、Journal of Environmental Economics and Management 。