Seminar Vol. 241
Title: Measuring Economic Mobility in India Using Noisy Data: A Partial Identification Approach
Speaker: Hao Li, Nanjing Audit University
Time: October 23,202013:30-15:00
Venue: Conference Room 106B, IESR, Zhonghui Building (College of Economics)
About the speaker:
Dr. Hao Li is an Assistant Professor of Economics at the Nanjing Audit University. She obtained a Ph.D. in Economics from Southern Methodist University, Dallas in 2018. Her research and teaching interests lie mostly in the fields of labor economics, applied econometrics and development economics. Dr. Li's research has appeared in the Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, China Economic Review, and Southern Economic Journal.
We examine economic mobility in India while accounting for measurement error to better understand the welfare effects of the rise in inequality. To proceed, we extend recently developed methods on the partial identification of transition matrices. Allowing for modest misclassification, we find overall mobility has been remarkably low: at least 75 percent of poor households remained poor or at-risk of being poor between 2005 and 2012. We also find Muslims, lower caste groups, and rural households are in a more disadvantageous position compared to Hindus, upper caste groups, and urban households. These findings cast doubt on the conventional wisdom that marginalized households in India are catching up.